Not so long ago the typical freight railcar had a new cost below $50,000. Today, a newly built freight railcar is in the $100,000 to $150,000 range. Both rail and aero assets present long-term investment opportunities. Railcars have up to a fifty-year interchange life. The economic useful life of an aircraft or aircraft engine is […]
Rail and air transportation plays a central role in our nation’s economy. The government’s fiscal decisions, monetary policies, and administrative agency rulings influence the outcomes and the economics of transportation investment opportunities. The Surface Transportation Board’s unanimous ruling that the Canadian National hasn’t demonstrated its use of a voting trust would be consistent with the […]
New railcar orders rose 80% to 6,227 in the first quarter of 2021 from the fourth quarter of 2020 as rail freight volumes improved. Lease rates are showing improvement (but remain “soft”1). Greenbrier: “We’re seeing a broad-based need across all sectors and all businesses. Shippers are pursuing larger, higher-capacity railcars as a means to optimize […]
The U.S. economy is opening up. Forty-seven percent of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated. Most states have lifted restrictions. Over the last year, Congress has passed $4 trillion in fiscal stimulus. The updated Congressional Budget Office forecast expects GDP growth to reach 7.4% in 2021. The recovery is exceeding expectations and may turn […]
It was only fourteen months ago that Covid-19 appeared shutting down economies and disrupting international traffic. Last fall’s elections led to a new Administration and a continuation of tariffs on Chinese products1. First tariffs, then the pandemic. Both have significantly disrupted domestic and global aviation transportation. Those disruptions, and “Precision Scheduled Railroading” have also changed […]
The March weekly average of total rail carloads (231,232) was up 4.1% over March 2020 (total carloads for the last two weeks of March were up 7.3% over comparable weeks of 2020). Intermodal volume was up 24% over March 2020, that’s the biggest monthly gain ever. Following a 25.6% gain in the fourth quarter of […]
Once approved by the Surface Transportation Board, the combination of the Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern (the two smallest Class One Railroads by revenues1) can be expected to drive a modal shift from truck to rail. The combined “Canadian Pacific Kansas City”, or CPKC, will remain the smallest Class One. After the combination, a […]
As vaccinations increase and COVID cases fall, a stronger domestic economy is coming. With the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill becoming law (the ‘American Rescue Plan Act’), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has said the U.S. economy will accelerate twice as fast as expected this year. Congress has now authorized six major ‘stimulus’ […]
2020 with its historic pandemic presented airframe OEMs with hurdles that demanded problem-solving and a willingness to pivot from the traditional way of doing things. To manage cost many had outsourced components and reduced inventories. The pandemic provided production breathing room and an opportunity to improve global supply chain management. Faced with demand challenges Airbus […]
Dr. Anthony Fauci has predicted, “it will be open season for vaccinations in the U.S. by April”. Supply boosts are expected to allow most people to get shots to protect against COVID-19 by then. Herd immunity could be achieved by late summer. With continuing low-interest rates and Fiscal stimulus provided by the CARES act (passed […]
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AERO AND RAIL EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT – WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETSJuly 1, 2026 - 4:07 pmWhether a negotiated end to the Iran conflict holds will determine the longer-term direction of energy markets and the pricing of Jet-A and diesel. As Iran flexes its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s economies face headwinds and continued Mideast geopolitical turbulence. Oil and jet fuel prices spiked in the early days of […]
AERO AND RAIL EQUIPMENT – CAPTURING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGEJune 17, 2026 - 8:13 pmNewly confirmed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh inherits an inflation rate that has been persistently above the Fed’s 2% target. People who have worked with him say he is unlikely to force outcomes the open market committee won’t support. Warsh feels the path to restoring Fed credibility runs through better methods for measuring and forecasting […]
AERO AND RAIL MARKETS – AN INVESTOR’S PLAYBOOKMay 1, 2026 - 7:32 pmIt’s happened before. The Arab Oil Embargo, which ran from October 1973 through March 1974, was a result of the Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War.[1] Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries sought to stop oil to any country assisting Israel. Since the U.S. supplied Israel with weapons, a total U.S. oil embargo was imposed, resulting in the price […]