Entries by residco

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Market Realities Transform Transportation Investment

Liquidity buffers, loans, restructuring operations, cost savings. As the pandemic lingers it continues to depress economic activity.   The drop in passenger traffic is driving air carriers to constantly adjust network flight schedules and evaluate equipment needs and workforce reductions. United is exploring the possibility of a fall workforce reduction and American is considering similar plans. […]

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Identifying Midyear Opportunities

Aviation and rail equipment lease rates and equipment values are stressed as operators adjust equipment capacity to meet current levels of demand (and adjust to the Class One Roads implementation of Precision-scheduled railroading “PSR”). In the near term, lessees are focused on ensuring the sustainability of their business by attempting to defer new delivery commitments […]

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Transportation Bottoming Out Onto a Bumpy Road

As the U.S. economy began to reopen, investors looked past the pandemic and optimism drove financial markets to within 4.5% of their all-time high.  Lockdowns eased and a stronger than expected jobs report (2.5 million new jobs added in May) indicated the U.S. economy was impatient to reopen. American and Delta reported progress in summer […]

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As Demand Recovers, What’s On The Horizon?

Domestic economies are beginning to reopen as evidenced by the number of TSA airport security screening checks.  They totaled 87,534 April 14th and by May 25th had tripled to 257,451.  “We’re past the trough in terms of peak damage”.  Much of the pickup reflects the states’ decisions to open parts of their economies.  While global […]

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China-US Imports Rise Yet Rail Freight Contracts

With economies ‘locked down’ and travel restricted, the pandemic has disrupted U.S. industrial production and impacted derived domestic rail freight traffic negatively.  The Federal Reserve reported manufacturing output fell by 13.7% in April, its largest monthly decline dating back to 1919.  Record declines in spending and employment are creating State budget disasters.  Furloughs caused by […]

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Navigate to Tomorrow’s Fleet Environment

The past aviation super cycle was driven by growing demand from Asia’s emerging middle class (China) as well as the expansion of no-frills carriers.  With much of the world now subject to air travel restrictions more than two-thirds of the world’s passenger aircraft are parked.  The reality is that most of these aircraft will be […]

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Demand Shock

The coronavirus was the turning point. Schools and universities are being closed. Public activities are being canceled. Air travel and supply chains are being disrupted. Companies are telling employees to stay put. The virus constitutes a force majeure event.   Even before the U.S. ban on travel from Europe, Air Carriers were reacting by trimming capacity, […]