The Federal Government reopened on November 12th, 43 days after the October 1st shutdown. The Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies that prompted the Senate to block funding are set to expire at the end of this year. Without a bipartisan Congressional solution, a January 30, 2026, budget deadline remains. The November jobs report is scheduled for release on December 16, 2025. With the October job markets information not available for the December (9th -10th) Fed meeting, the Consumer Price Index up 3% year over year (September data), and the September’s jobs report (issued seven weeks late due to the Government shutdown) unexpectedly showing 119,000 jobs added, it is likely a data driven Fed will remain divided and hesitate to ease policy further. Until we know more, positive market sentiment continues to drive the 2026 aero and rail sectors.
Boeing is improving deliveries and production quality, but the A320 family has surpassed the 737 as the most delivered aircraft [1]. Boeing delivered 53 aircraft in October. Airbus reported 78 deliveries. Boeing’s October deliveries included thirty-nine 737 MAX, three 787-10, four 787-9, two 777F, two 767-300F, two 767-2C, and one 737-800A. Led by Kelly Ortberg, Boeing has exceeded its total deliveries for the entire year of 2024, indicating a strong recovery in production. GE Aerospace projects a year-over-year increase of over 20% in LEAP engine deliveries in 2025 compared to 2024 (reaching approximately 2,000 units). Deliveries will support aircraft production rates for both Airbus and Boeing (the A320neo is powered by the LEAP-1A, the 737 MAX is powered by the LEAP-1B). The CFM56, the most prevalent engine fleet in service (over 33,000 delivered), remains in strong demand, servicing the existing midlife fleet. Pratt & Whitney GTF-powered aircraft, primarily A320neo, A220s, and Embraer E-Jets E2s, remain grounded due to the need for prolonged inspections. Engine repair turnaround times are reaching 300 days, and recovery has been pushed back to the end of 2027 or early 2028.
Manufacturing accounts for about 11% of U.S. GDP and 8% of employment (the services sector accounts for roughly 77% of GDP and 85% of private-sector jobs). The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remains below 50%. Even with manufacturing sluggish, railcarloads[2] remain nearly unchanged from 2024. Total carloads year to date through October were up 1.9%, more than 180,000 carloads over the same period in 2024. Through October 13, of the 20 carload categories the AAR tracks saw year-over-year gains. Year-to-date intermodal volume through October was 11.94 million units, up 2.8% (over 320,000 units) over last year, the most since 2021 and the third most ever. Carloads excluding coal were 1.0% higher in October 2025 than in October 2024, their seventh increase in the past eight months and the 19th increase in the past 21 months. Year-to-date carloads through October were up 1.3% (more than 93,000 carloads, a sign of positive market sentiment) and were the most since 2019.
Themes that will influence Aero and Rail equipment values and investment markets in 2026 include: tax cuts and deregulation, corporate earnings growth, inflation, interest rates, AI driven investment, technology gains, Aero OEM material shortages, supply chain disruptions, production bottlenecks, a lack of skilled labor, tariffs, nationalism, global competition, and MRO activity for aircraft[3] and engines will increase.
Solid demand and financial conditions support midlife aircraft. Freight rail remains steady. Market sentiment is positive. Benefit from strategic investment insight on the positive market sentiment that is driving 2026 aero and rail. Call RESIDCO.
Glenn Davis 312-635-3161
[1] Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury remarked at the company’s third-quarter briefing that the A320, after 37 years, had “reached a major milestone, becoming the most-delivered airliner in history, surpassing the Boeing 737.”
