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Opportunity As Washington Shifts Focus

During his campaign, Biden promised “a second great railroad revolution” to ensure America has the cleanest, safest, and fastest rail system in the world for both passengers and freight. That commitment is part of a pledged $2 Trillion investment in infrastructure, transit, power, electric vehicles, charging stations, and ‘green’ buildings with the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. With a 50-50 Senate1, the Democrats fall short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a Republican filibuster. To pass their spending initiatives Democrats must select either a) the tax-driven ‘reconciliation’ process which requires a Senate majority to pass2, b) do away with the filibuster, or c) consider working across the aisle. 

The markets have priced in significant additional stimulus in the first quarter of 2021, beyond December’s $900 Billion Covid fiscal package (which brought the total current fiscal stimulus since February 2020 to $3.5 trillion). Current stimulus spending is more a share of GDP than the entire response to the ‘07-‘09 recession (and it has been spent in less than two years). With the Fed promising to keep interest rates low until inflation reaches 2% and unemployment drops to pre-pandemic levels, the case for a robust recovery is widely expected. Economists at Goldman raised their 2021 forecast for U.S. economic growth to 6.4% reflecting their expectations of additional Federal Stimulus early in the new Administration. Biden’s $4 Trillion in tax increases on corporations and households earning more than $400K will come later after the fiscal stimulus and a successful inoculation campaign unlock consumer demand.

Congress will shift its focus to climate change and social equity issues, the Biden Administration to constructive international cooperation. Past Democratic Administrations shackled economic growth with excessive anti-business regulations. Expect Congress to use the Congressional Review Act, which allows the Senate and House to overturn regulations finalized in the 60 legislative days prior to the Inauguration, using a fast-track process that only requires a simple majority vote. Already, to ensure global consistency, the Environmental Protection Agency set its first-ever climate standards for commercial airlines and large business jets (December 28th). The new rules are meant to prevent U.S. jets from being shut out of international markets. They create efficiency standards to limit carbon-dioxide and nitrous-oxide emissions from new commercial airliners starting in 2028 (OEMs will have to apply the limits to any new designs starting this year).

On January 26, the U.S. will implement Covid-19 negative testing requirements for all arriving international travelers.  The number of arriving international passengers has risen sixfold from June to November. With demand returning, hard asset investment will work as a hedge against a jump in inflation that will come as central banks print money and sharply expand their balance sheets.  

2021 will be an improving year, much better than previously thought. Opportunities are to be found as the over-supply of railcars continues and thirty percent of the commercial aircraft fleet remains parked. Long term transportation investment demands analysis of market demand and supply, and effective decision making informed by expected changes in value and cash flows. See beyond conventional thinking to identify secondary market trends and equipment opportunities before they are recognized by most market participants. Call RESIDCO.

Glenn P. Davis, 312-635-3161 davis@residco.com

1 The last 50-50 Senate was in 2001.

2 Republicans used ‘reconciliation’ to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

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2021 – Expect the Unexpected

A consensus is typically believed to be a rough picture of what is to come. By nature, we tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily. Not knowing any better, we extrapolate the future from the present.  Most are now expected to be vaccinated by mid-2021. When the pandemic clears, economists think GDP could grow 4 to 5% or more. The Fed will keep interest rates low, unemployment will be down to 5%, and inflation up to 2% by the end of 2021. Central bankers will continue to target growth, inflation, and unemployment1 (total nonfarm employment rose by 245,000 in November and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7%). Growth, income, and the ability to service debt depend on a return of robust demand. The unexpected? The next Administration’s announced policy preferences are contrary to growth.2  

Domestic aviation markets will recover with low-cost carriers leading the way. The low-cost carriers can flexibly modify schedules, follow changing traffic demand patterns, and move aircraft around to take advantage of those changes. Southwest Airlines (known for its discount fares) is starting flights at O’Hare International Airport in 2021.  It will keep its existing hub at Midway International Airport and is expected to continue using its fleet of existing 737s. With Southwest at O’Hare, American and United will have to adjust. Similarly, Ryanair Holdings, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, is in talks with airports in Germany, Austria, Spain, and Portugal. Ryanair is banking on the MAX to add capacity when air travel rebounds. With the MAX back the Cirium Fleet forecast anticipates 360 MAX deliveries in 2021 with 570 MAX in service by the end of the year. 

To smooth relations with the incoming Biden Administration, and as part of a strategy to de-escalate trade tensions in order to allow the U.S. and UK to move forward to the next phase of their trading relationship, the UK has said it will suspend retaliatory European Union tariffs on Boeing jets resulting from the EU-U.S. dispute over subsidies to their respective commercial airframe makers after the Brexit transition period ends on December 31st. But the fleet surplus will continue through late 2022 as local issues continue to impact international travel (since recent news of a new variant of the COVID virus came out of the U.K. nearly 50 countries have again banned flights to and from the U.K.).  

Domestically, certain segments of U.S. manufacturing have made surprisingly strong recoveries.  Auto production is back to pre-pandemic levels and residential construction activity has been robust. Rail intermodal has recovered strongly as online e-commerce replaced traditional retail store sales.  

This has not been a normal recession. The pandemic interrupted the supply of goods and eliminated global passenger transport. The recovery will be uneven, and available facts suggest 2021 will be challenging. With a cost base better than network carriers, low-cost carriers are seizing the opportunity for market penetration. Transportation equipment leasing and flexible asset management solutions work to keep the economy moving. As the recovery unfolds your portfolio should hold the right mix of air and rail transportation assets. For opportunities that maintain portfolio cash flow in this new environment call RESIDCO.

Glenn P. Davis, 312-635-3161 davis@residco.com

1 Caution: current monetary policy inflates asset pricing.

2 The Biden team believes the role of government is to direct and manage the private economy through macroeconomic policies; increasing taxes, government regulations, and spending (trillions) more than collected.  Even at current low-interest rates, the U.S. currently spends as much on interest as the combined budgets of Commerce, Education, Energy, DHS, HUD, Interior, Justice & State.

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