Freight Demand Sustains Transportation Equipment Investment
Air cargo represents less than one percent of global trade by tonnage but amounts to $6 trillion worth of goods moved every year.
Entries by residco
Demand Shock
The coronavirus was the turning point. Schools and universities are being closed. Public activities are being canceled. Air travel and supply chains are being disrupted. Companies are telling employees to stay put. The virus constitutes a force majeure event. Even before the U.S. ban on travel from Europe, Air Carriers were reacting by trimming capacity, […]
Turbulent Markets Lead to Opportunity
Investor interest continues to demonstrate market confidence in Air and Rail transportation equipment.
Headwinds & Heads-Up for Bank-Owned Rail Portfolios
When a National Bank invests in personal property, the Code of Federal Regulations, Title 12 Part 23, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency provides regulatory investment guidelines.
PSR Dampens Freight Car Demand as China Trade Revs Up
Eliminating hump yards and running fewer, longer, ‘scheduled’ trains, the Class One’s are continuing to implement Precision Scheduled Railroading (“PSR”).
Loss Aversion: the B737MAX & PSR “Precision Scheduled Railroading”
Strategic decisions are never simple. Despite the significant resources investment managers devote to the decision process, they often make judgments that go wrong because of human shortcomings.
2020 Equipment Values
Residual value forecasting for transportation equipment often begins with an expected value curve that traces ‘value decay’ over an asset’s assumed useful life.
A Decade of Disruption and What To Expect
“A new decade stretches before us.” Crosscurrents from the past decade have swept the unprepared away, so a review of the past decade’s challenges will help instruct future investment. Optimizing investment management will always require a deep understanding of markets, end-user needs, current fleet dynamics, and equipment designs. Boeing’s 737MAX, the Class One’s singular focus […]
2020 – The Challenge
Parsing 2020: restated, third-quarter real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1%. As well, consensus economic forecasts predict growth at a moderate pace. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is expected to edge up. And unemployment is anticipated to remain below 4%. The business fixed investment will continue to slow due to […]
Managing the Components of Risk
With more volatility likely, what’s the maximum level of risk you are willing to take in next year’s markets? The answer requires knowledge of the impact changing traffic levels will have on the values of specific equipment types and portfolio credits. Values that will be driven by the economic, financial, and political environment over the […]
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Chicago IL 60602 – 4275
Recent Posts
Growing Aero and Rail InvestmentsMarch 19, 2025 - 8:09 amBoeing delivered 45 jets in January[1]. That’s 19 more than Airbus’ January deliveries. COMAC and Embraer each delivered three aircraft in January 2025. Airbus plans to deliver 820 commercial aircraft in 2025, 7% more than in 2024 (Boeing delivered 348 in 2024). Boeing’s 737 deliveries remain capped at 38 aircraft per month. The newly appointed […]
2025 Core Themes for Aero and Rail InvestmentFebruary 5, 2025 - 9:27 pmStrong GDP growth, sticky inflation, and a soft landing–core themes for aero and rail investment. The economy’s performance in 2025 will drive the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. Higher ticket revenues and lower energy prices (jet fuel is expected to be less expensive in 2025) will benefit air carriers. The International Air Transport Association estimates the […]
Looking Forward to 2025 Aero and Rail InvestmentJanuary 7, 2025 - 7:37 pmNovember’s jobs report exceeded expectations (payrolls increased by 227,000[1]) yet the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate December 18th by a quarter of a percentage point (to between 4.25% and 4.5%). Fed Chairman Powell’s recap: “I think we’re in a good place, but I think from here it’s a new phase and we’re going to […]