A government shutdown averted, a stopgap spending bill signed (ensuring government operations through the end of September), government agency reductions in force, a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries and on imported goods from Mexico and Canada, all in the first quarter of 2025. Trade and reciprocal tariff uncertainties are causing […]
Boeing delivered 45 jets in January[1]. That’s 19 more than Airbus’ January deliveries. COMAC and Embraer each delivered three aircraft in January 2025. Airbus plans to deliver 820 commercial aircraft in 2025, 7% more than in 2024 (Boeing delivered 348 in 2024). Boeing’s 737 deliveries remain capped at 38 aircraft per month. The newly appointed […]
Strong GDP growth, sticky inflation, and a soft landing–core themes for aero and rail investment. The economy’s performance in 2025 will drive the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. Higher ticket revenues and lower energy prices (jet fuel is expected to be less expensive in 2025) will benefit air carriers. The International Air Transport Association estimates the […]
November’s jobs report exceeded expectations (payrolls increased by 227,000[1]) yet the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate December 18th by a quarter of a percentage point (to between 4.25% and 4.5%). Fed Chairman Powell’s recap: “I think we’re in a good place, but I think from here it’s a new phase and we’re going to […]
How will Republican lawmakers reshape tax policy? Will the “Department of Government Efficiency” recommendations result in reductions of regulatory red tape, cost, and Federal Government Agency restructuring? Are Tariffs a solution that will drive manufacturing growth when the real problem is the high cost of U.S. Labor?[1] Would a Domestic Manufacturing corporate tax reduction spur […]
The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Business investment, ample energy supplies, and consumer spending have led to increased productivity. After the Fed cut interest rates by half a percentage point in September economists are generally positive. The Conference Board’s leading economic index indicates continued moderate growth for the […]
For the third quarter of 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s “GDPNow” model is estimating real U.S. GDP growth of 2% (a seasonally adjusted annual rate)[1]. July’s World Economic Outlook Update expects the U.S. GDP to grow by 1.9% in 2025[2]. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, (CPI-U) […]
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. What are markets anticipating? Interest rates, Inflation risk, Global unrest, Trade barriers, Government spending, a new Democratic nominee, or a second Trump presidency? Will there be a pro-business climate after the election, less regulation, more drilling, continued tax cuts, and lower interest rates? Recall the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act cut the corporate tax […]
The Federal Aviation Administration (“FAA”) grants authority to operate scheduled air service in the form of Federal Aviation Regulations (“FAR”). Air carriers authorized to operate under Part 121 are generally large, U.S.-based airlines, regional air carriers, and all cargo operators. Most would consider the General Aviation (“GA”) category to include only light, small-engine private aircraft but even […]
Year to date Rail carloads through the end of April totaled 3.63 million, down 4.8% from last year. Total carloads have fallen year over year in each of the first four months of this year. Excluding coal however, total carloads are up 2% over April 2023 and have risen year over year in each of the last […]
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New Regime Decisions Reverberate Through Aero & RailApril 7, 2025 - 5:28 pmA government shutdown averted, a stopgap spending bill signed (ensuring government operations through the end of September), government agency reductions in force, a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries and on imported goods from Mexico and Canada, all in the first quarter of 2025. Trade and reciprocal tariff uncertainties are causing […]
Growing Aero and Rail InvestmentsMarch 19, 2025 - 8:09 amBoeing delivered 45 jets in January[1]. That’s 19 more than Airbus’ January deliveries. COMAC and Embraer each delivered three aircraft in January 2025. Airbus plans to deliver 820 commercial aircraft in 2025, 7% more than in 2024 (Boeing delivered 348 in 2024). Boeing’s 737 deliveries remain capped at 38 aircraft per month. The newly appointed […]
2025 Core Themes for Aero and Rail InvestmentFebruary 5, 2025 - 9:27 pmStrong GDP growth, sticky inflation, and a soft landing–core themes for aero and rail investment. The economy’s performance in 2025 will drive the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. Higher ticket revenues and lower energy prices (jet fuel is expected to be less expensive in 2025) will benefit air carriers. The International Air Transport Association estimates the […]