2020 with its historic pandemic presented airframe OEMs with hurdles that demanded problem-solving and a willingness to pivot from the traditional way of doing things. To manage cost many had outsourced components and reduced inventories. The pandemic provided production breathing room and an opportunity to improve global supply chain management.
Faced with demand challenges Airbus developed solutions. Reacting to the 66% decline in passenger kilometers (the low point of 2020), Airbus reduced civil aircraft production, embarked on workforce cuts, and increased its focus on making its manufacturing processes more cost efficient. Airframe sections and components of aircraft are made all over Europe before bringing them in for final assembly in Hamburg and Toulouse. It is a tried and tested supply chain, using specific expertise present in each region. Airbus expects to deliver 566 commercial aircraft in 2021, matching 2020 deliveries (863 were delivered in 2019). For 2020 the consolidated company lost €1.133 billion (compared to a €1.362 billion loss in 2019). Deliveries surged in the fourth quarter and generated a €1.6 billion profit. But with continuing global demand uncertainty, Airbus has shelved plans to open a dedicated final assembly line in Toulouse for the A321 narrow body.
Airbus has 3,000 A321neo orders. Boeing 460 737 Max 10 orders, the nearest competitor to the A321neo (the MAX carries fewer passengers and has less range). Airbus’ A321XLR design, which added a third fuel tank, will allow the XLR to fly up to 10 hours without refueling. With CFM Leap-1A engines the A321XLR will operate with a 30% reduction in fuel burn per seat. Analysts argue Boeing must (re)launch design of a new mid-market jet to effectively compete with Airbus’ A321 neo (and the A321XLR), but Boeing reported its largest ever annual net loss in 2020 ($11.9 billion) which includes a series of fourth quarter charges totaling $8.3 billion1.
Boeing’s strengths were built up over decades. Now Boeing’s near-term recovery rests on a return of the MAX and a ‘business transformation’ that includes refocusing on technical and engineering expertise, changes to its manufacturing footprint, and a commitment to safety in cooperation with worldwide regulatory authorities. Boeing uses over 50 suppliers from multiple countries across the world (India, South Korea, Italy, Japan, Australia, China, Sweden, France, and Canada). Driving down the cost of production was a major factor in Boeing’s supply chain decisions. Improperly managed outsourcing and a focus on reducing cost led to the 737 MAX flight control design issues, delayed delivery of the 777X, and quality issues with the 787’s carbon fiber composite fuselage joints.
Countries are slowly starting to reopen their borders to travelers after months of lockdowns. The UK government announced February 22 international travel ‘should’ resume (but no earlier than May 17). Domestic U.S. traffic will be driven by the decisions of the soon-to-be-vaccinated traveling public.
For equipment investors, adapting to market conditions requires a focus on equipment types, credits, and tax risk. Leverage your network. Discuss portfolio solutions. Call RESIDCO.
Glenn P. Davis, 312-635-3161
1 $6.5 Billion on the 777X, $465 Million for 737 MAX production issues, $275 Million in ‘production inefficiencies’ on the KC-46A tanker, $290 Million for Boeing Global Services and a $744 Million MAX settlement with the U.S. Government.
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