Value Forecasting

Residual value forecasting for transportation equipment often begins with an expected value curve that traces ‘value decay’ over an asset’s assumed useful life. Once the basic value curve is in place, value volatility must be considered and incorporated (value decay curves do not provide an accurate forecast since the value of transportation assets doesn’t always go down).  

Overlaying volatility allows an estimate of the range of expected value at any point, given the impact of expected changes in market factors and customer needs on specific equipment types in the portfolio. The economics of an investment requires lessors initially measure their residual as the present value of the amount that they expect to derive from the underlying asset following the end of the lease term; This is a value that is not guaranteed by the lessee or any other third party unrelated to the lessor, discounted using the rate implicit in the lease. An investor’s individual risk tolerance affects residual values that eventually are incorporated in the economics of lease return calculations. At the same time, accounting recognizes book income during the life of a lease based on the assumption that residual values will be realized, unless ‘impaired.’  

Aircraft values were impacted by the events of 9/11 and by the 2008 global financial crisis.  Passenger and freight traffic tumbled, and airlines parked their jets by the hundreds and returned leased planes as lease contracts expired.  Yet over the decade following 2008, the global airline industry logged ten consecutive years of profitability. 

Effects of Equipment in Storage

Today, as CSX, Norfolk Southern, and the Union Pacific implemented Precision Scheduled Railroading, they are storing or returning locomotives and freight cars, idling yards, and laying off employees.  On December 1, 396,200 railcars were in storage, almost 25% of the 1.7 Million car fleet (storage levels last peaked in 2016 at 425,000 cars). The future economics of these car types are complex. Of the railcars in storage, 35% are Covered Hoppers, 28% Tanks, and 12% Coal Gondolas.  

Equipment in storage, whether a locomotive, railcar, or a 737MAX that is not flying, is worth less than if in service.  Planes are built to fly. Once recertified, it will take 100 to 150 hours of additional work for each 737MAX to return to flight. Maintenance must spool the engines and boot up a flight computer and auxiliary power units every week.  Exterior surfaces and cabin interiors must be protected. The longer in storage, the more maintenance needs to be done.  

Are These Assets Impaired?

“Impairments” are recognized only if there is a “permanent” reduction in value (the amount of an impairment loss being the difference between an asset’s carrying amount and its current fair value).  With a 30% decline in value, an investor who is leveraged 2:1 would experience a 60% decline in net worth if they were to take a write-down. Bank lessors, who are typically leveraged 10 to 1, will elect to store their equipment rather than sell into a down market.  Next year’s equipment values will be impacted by the existing fleet, new equipment demand, the business cycle, and the always unpredictable ‘unexpected’ events.  Strategic thinkers leverage experience, judgment, and proprietary data to manage residual risk and achieve investment goals.  Call RESIDCO

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