A government shutdown averted, a stopgap spending bill signed (ensuring government operations through the end of September), government agency reductions in force, a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries and on imported goods from Mexico and Canada, all in the first quarter of 2025. Trade and reciprocal tariff uncertainties are causing volatility in the market and consumer confidence. The Administration’s long-term strategic goal (the “bigger picture”) is to attempt to ensure America’s competitive preeminence in the face of China’s global mercantilism by diverting production of goods to domestic factories, reducing deficit spending, and providing incentives to invest in America. The near-term impact, however, will be supply chain disruption, inflation, lost government jobs, reductions in entitlement spending, and the possibility of a lost ‘soft landing.’ Investment planning is becoming more challenging.
The choppy start of the first quarter has made air carriers’ capacity cautious. Delta, American, and Jet Blue have cut their first quarter guidance. United expects first-quarter earnings to come in at the ‘lower end’ of its forecast due to a 50% drop in government-related travel bookings. Scott Kirby announced early this month that United plans to retire 21 of its ‘most expensive’ aircraft early in 2025 and cut capacity to Canadian destinations. United’s mainline fleet comprises 1,010 aircraft, of which the oldest, on average, are the B767-300ERs (37, averaging 29.1 years), followed by the B757-200s (40, 28.2 years), the B777-200s (19, 28.1 years), and the B737-700s (40, 26 years). Kirby did not disclose which aircraft will be ‘retired.’[1] Delta’s Ed Bastian commented on March 10: “We’re noticing the biggest pullback in demand right now in terms of bookings, and what they are saying about the macro environment and the uncertainty that’s out there right now. We know in a broad sense what the President wants to do, but we’re a long way from seeing things put in place.”
In Rail, the administration is looking for ways to revive coal plants that have closed and prevent others from shutting down. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the U.S. had been on track to close half of its coal-fired generation capacity by 2026. But Doug Burgum, the new Secretary of the Interior, and other officials have said keeping plants online can help lower energy costs for U.S. consumers. The administration wants to cut through red tape and empower the nation to compete in an AI arms race against China. AI data centers require immense amounts of energy which need stable base load sources. The Interior Department approved a federal mining plan modification by the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement for the Spring Creek mine in Big Horn County, Montana, operated by Navajo Transitional Energy. The agency said the decision extends the mine’s operational life by 16 years and lays the path for the production of about 40 million tons of ‘federal’ coal.[2] In 2024, coal units in Maryland, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Utah extended their retirement dates to 2036 or 2038 as generators aim to meet rising demand. CONSOL Energy CEO James Brock said, “If demand grows at even half the pace everyone is expecting, I think you’ll see these coal-fired plants run at least at a higher capacity, and they may even extend their retirements further.”
Focus on the bigger picture. Risk-adjusted hard asset cash flows with residual upside. Profit from the economics of uncertainty and grow your aero and rail investment. Call RESIDCO.
Glenn Davis 312-635-3161
[1] CH-Aviation, First quarter softness may be a buying opportunity, March 21, 2025.
[2] DOI, Interior Advances Energy Independence with Spring Creek Mine Expansion Approval, March 13, 2025.
Boeing delivered 45 jets in January[1]. That’s 19 more than Airbus’ January deliveries. COMAC and Embraer each delivered three aircraft in January 2025. Airbus plans to deliver 820 commercial aircraft in 2025, 7% more than in 2024 (Boeing delivered 348 in 2024). Boeing’s 737 deliveries remain capped at 38 aircraft per month. The newly appointed Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy, has said he will keep the production cap in place until he is satisfied with Boeing’s safety standards. Safran[2] CEO Olivier Andries has made public statements expressing confidence that Boeing will hit a delivery rate of 38 per month in the first half of 2025 and 42 a month by the end of the year. The 45 aircraft Boeing delivered in January were the most in a month since December 2023. January was the company’s first full month of production since the seven-week machinists’ strike last fall. CFM International, the sole provider of the LEAP engines used on the 737 MAX is expecting to increase its LEAP production by 15 to 20% this year. That would allow Boeing to ramp up its 737 MAX production. Both OEMs face supply chain challenges involving issues with engines and aerostructures manufacturer Spirit AeroSystems. Spirit AeroSystems produces fuselage sections for Boeing’s 737 and 787 aircraft as well as flight deck sections. Spirit also supplies Airbus with fuselage sections and front wing spars for the A350 and wings for the A220.
Southwest is planning to sell some of its older 737NG aircraft and replace them with the newer 737 MAX8. The air carrier plans to retire 51 aircraft to operate an all-MAX fleet by 2031. It’s additionally weighing whether to sell 10-737-800 aircraft. “These are midlife aircraft that currently have highly favorable market valuations.”[3] As new equipment deliveries continue to be delayed older aircraft are retained in service longer. Air carriers are facing lessor lease extensions of six years for older aircraft and eight to ten years for new aircraft. Engine durability challenges related to Pratt & Whitney’s geared turbofan (‘GTF’) and CFM’s LEAP engines continue to impact operators. IATA’s chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen has said the wave of recent lease extensions has resulted in airlines operating the oldest fleet in modern history.
In North America, 26% of U.S. Freight ton-miles are moved by rail. Trinity Industries Fourth Quarter 2024 Investor Presentation reported continued strength in lease rates with their ‘future lease rate differential’[4] +24.3% and fleet utilization at 97%. Trinity feels the North American Railcar Market is ‘in balance’ and is forecasting approximately 35,000 new railcars to be delivered in 2025 (not including conversions). Trinity is a leading railcar manufacturer with 41% of industry deliveries in FY 2024. Their portfolio includes 270 different railcar designs serving approximately 900 different commodity groups, 52% Freight Cars and 48% Tank cars.The Conference Board’s January 28th report reveals consumer confidence is falling and expected inflation rising. For now, the Fed is holding interest rates steady. Deregulation, deficit reduction, and extending the 2017 tax cuts will help. Fleet investment provides stable cash flow, tax advantages, and hard asset inflation benefits. Release opportunities provide a natural interest rate hedge. Air traffic and rail freight support the economy. But the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is higher now than at any time since the Great Recession. Are we at a peak in the value cycle? To answer that question and successfully grow aero and rail investments, Call RESIDCO.
Glenn Davis 312-635-3161
[1] Boeing ended January with 5,554 aircraft in its backlog, 4,296 737s, 109 767, 427 777s and 722 787s.
Strong GDP growth, sticky inflation, and a soft landing–core themes for aero and rail investment. The economy’s performance in 2025 will drive the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. Higher ticket revenues and lower energy prices (jet fuel is expected to be less expensive in 2025) will benefit air carriers. The International Air Transport Association estimates the average cost of jet fuel during the year will be about $87/bbl, or $2.0714/gal, well under 2024’s lows. IATA also expects the cumulative cost of jet fuel in 2025 to be $248 billion, nearly 5% below 2024. Boeing delivered 17 737MAX last December and is not expected to turn cash-flow positive until it can ramp up 737 production to 38 per month. GE Aerospace’s commercial engines service segment reported 19% growth in fourth-quarter revenue. Engine availability is an issue. Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbofans (‘GTF’) continue to ground aircraft, resulting in operational disruptions, particularly affecting the Airbus A320neo fleet. Rail volumes are up and boosted by intermodal shipments. Coal carloads continue to decline. Grain carloads were 1.07 million up 8.5% (83,906) over 2023 (at 8.4 million carloads they were the most since 2019). For farmers, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports long positions in corn are their highest since May 2022. Efforts to reduce the burden of Federal Government regulations will reduce costs and free businesses to invest. Even though the Fed has reduced short-term interest rates by 1% in 2024, long-term interest rates are up, reflecting the market’s concern surrounding tariffs, tax, and Federal budget deficit uncertainties.
In 2024 rail carloads excluding coal rose 1.4%, or 117,264 carloads, over 2023 (their third year-over-year gain in the past four years[1]). The 2.94 million carloads of coal that originated in 2024 were the fewest in AAR records that go back to 1988 (coal carload volumes peaked in 2008 at 7.44 million). The drive to restore manufacturing will increase rail activity. GATX reported railcar demand ‘steady’ with railcar leases extended at attractive rates, high fleet utilization, and strong renewal success[2]. Excluding their boxcar fleet, GATX’s fourth quarter U.S. railcar fleet renewal lease rates were up 26.7% with average renewal terms of 60 months and a renewal success rate of 89.1%. Union Pacific’s fourth quarter included carload growth, improvements in velocity, employee productivity, operating income, and operating ratio.
There are about 17,000 single-aisle passenger aircraft in service globally. Approximately 11,600[3] ‘prior generation’ single-aisle aircraft are currently in service (6,055 A320ceo and 5,562 737NG). Single-aisle aircraft supply remains tight and new aircraft production remains low. At 2024 delivery rates, the aerospace industry will need almost 14 years to clear current outstanding orders.[4] As a result, markets are supporting mid-life aircraft values, lease rates, and longer lease terms.[5]
2024 performed much better than many economists thought. A core theme for 2025? The U.S. economy will continue to grow faster than other advanced economies. At 4% unemployment remains low. Expected tax relief and deregulation will drive investment in 2025. With a focus on business, not bureaucracy, the outlook for opportunities in Aero and Rail assets is up. Work with those who know where current Aero and Rail investment opportunities exist. Call RESIDCO.
Glenn Davis 312-635-3161
[1] Rail Time Indicators, Association of American Railroads, January 15, 2025.
[2] Railway Age, January 23, 2025, Fourth-quarter and full year 2024 financial report.
[3] Ibid. 694 PW1000G powered aircraft are currently parked.
November’s jobs report exceeded expectations (payrolls increased by 227,000[1]) yet the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate December 18th by a quarter of a percentage point (to between 4.25% and 4.5%). Fed Chairman Powell’s recap: “I think we’re in a good place, but I think from here it’s a new phase and we’re going to be cautious about further cuts.” Tariffs[2], inflation, and the Fed’s policy outlook may keep rates where they are for 2025. Legislative turbulence is evident even before the new administration takes office January 20, 2025. Government spending, regulatory rollbacks, federal agency reconfigurations, an emphasis on boosting production of oil and natural gas, revisiting the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement and implementation of policies that advance domestic manufacturing while discouraging reliance on Chinese and foreign manufacturing are on the table. Most will recall President Jimmy Carter as the ‘great deregulator.’ His legacy includes both the United States Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, which removed federal control over fares, routes, and market entry of new airlines, and the Staggers Rail Act of 1980, which eliminated tariff filing requirements for railroads, enabling private contracts and improving the financial health of the railroad industry. Thanks in no small part to President Carter, air travelers have enjoyed benefits, and Class Ones have passed cost savings on to shippers in the form of lower rates.
Long lived rail assets provide critical support to the domestic supply chain. Bulk transport of raw materials and finished goods will grow with domestic manufacturing growth. Trump’s first term boosted business for North America’s freight railroads. Between 2018 when Trump first introduced tariffs, and 2023, freight flows between the U.S., Canada and Mexico rose 28% by value. The amount moving on railroads increased 17% over the same period.[3] For the week ended December 21, 2024 U.S. freight rail traffic climbed 7.8% to 523,912 carloads and intermodal units. Both carloads and intermodal units were up compared to the same week in 2023 (230,857 carloads in the week, a .3% increase, and 293,055 containers and trailers, a 14.6% increase). Through 51 weeks of 2024 carload traffic is down 3.0%, intermodal up 9.3% for an overall net gain of 3.4%.[4] Intermodal is up as it is a more cost effective alternative to full truckload transport. Using rail for long distance hauls and trucks for shorter distances delivers both cost and environmental benefits.
Major air carriers lifted their revenue guidance for the year’s final quarter as travel demand held steady. Higher-than-expected demand is driving an increase in revenue per available seat mile and is expected to carry over into 2025. The TSA logged the 10 busiest days ever in 2024 (it screened 3.09 million people on Thanksgiving Sunday (edging out the previous record of 3.01 million travelers reached in July). Midlife narrow-body aircraft are the workhorses of air carrier fleets. Focusing on midlife aircraft with a long remaining useful life creates lease investment alternatives that reduce risk. They can be monetized in multiple ways and produce ample in-service cash flows.
GDP rose 3.1% in Qtr3. The economy remains strong. There will be fiscal policy and geopolitical tensions in 2025, but the new year will bring a friendlier regulatory environment and a path to putting our economy on a better growth footing. Aero and Rail transportation equipment provide scalable opportunities with risk that can be segmented across equipment types and credits. For actionable insights that allow more informed decisions, Call RESIDCO.
Glenn Davis 312-635-3161
[1] U.S. Department of Labor, December 6, 2024.
[2] Trump has pledged to use tariffs as a crucial part of his economic policy.
[3] Wall Street Journal, Railroad Looks Past Any Tariffs, December 3, 2024.
U.S. Economic Expansion
Revenues among the leading airline groups rose more than 10% last year and operating profits remain at historic highs. The economic indicators that make up the Conference Board Leading Economic Index were up .2% in May suggesting we may be approaching a ‘late growth stage’ of the current cycle. Most U.S. economic expansions have lasted more than three years, while recessions typically no more than 18 months. The current expansion started in June 2009 and will become the longest on record in July 2019 based on National Bureau of Economic Research figures that go back to the 1850s.
Growth in Aviation
The Aviation business continues to enjoy global traffic growth with 7% growth in RPK this year (well above the 20-year average of 5.5%) and cargo growth of 4%. We are in an expansionary period. But headwinds have begun to appear as inflation is near the Fed’s 2% target (expect a continued and gradual rising interest rate environment). Tariffs and trade negotiations are generating turbulence. The Asian markets are significant (Boeing has said China will need 5,730 single-aisle planes during the next two decades). Labor pressures, rising interest rates and jet fuel price volatility are all squeezing operating margins. And, on the horizon is a looming pilot shortage.
As we approach late stage growth in the current business cycle, industry operations have stabilized amid continuing strong passenger demand and the unbundling of ancillary ‘service’ revenues. Both have allowed carriers to cover climbing unit cost.
Aircraft Investment
In this environment investing in aircraft is a good business, even when financing aircraft to less than stellar credits, and even if we’re headed into what appears to be risky jurisdictions. Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway manages a $200 Billion portfolio; he returned to investing in the aviation industry in 2016. Recently he has been increasing his investment in SWA and Delta, operators that have the best return on invested capital. Return on invested capital (profit margins multiplied by asset turns) measures how efficiently aircraft are used. While ROA is not the same as returns to shareholder/owners due to factors such as debt, accounting policies and taxes, operators who produce a good return on assets create value. Southwest is a good example. By flying just one type of aircraft (737s), built by a single manufacturer (Boeing), they control pilot and mechanic training and cut down overall cost.
With solid U.S. growth, few economists expect a recession in the near term. Interest rates remain low and inflation is just now touching the Fed’s 2% target. As fuel, labor, and interest rates rise, IATA is forecasting profits of the world’s biggest airlines will dip. Despite cost pressures, the airlines’ return on invested capital will top their cost of capital for the fourth consecutive year. Markets are global and a focus on network planning and efficient aircraft utilization is key.
Historic high returns (over 9% annually) and low volatility. Understand aviation investment’s key performance drivers. Want answers? Call RESIDCO.
Demand in Aviation
Global passenger traffic is growing faster than expected. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 6.0% revenue passenger kilometer (“RPK”) growth for the year, above the 5.5% long-term trend.
This level of RPK growth is indicative of the robust demand in the aviation sector. Rising fares coupled with continuing (but still relatively) low fuel cost and low-interest rates are expected. With tax reform, most agree this cyclical expansion will continue.
The industry’s net profit is expected to be $38.4 billion in 2018, an increase of 11% over record profits of 2017. With rising demand, carriers expect to grow capacity 3.4% in North America. It’s record profits, tax law changes and capital availability [1] that are allowing carriers to consider adding more efficient aircraft in important traffic lanes.
Operational Economics
While fuel remains relatively inexpensive (Brent crude is expected to average $62 a barrel this year, while West Texas Intermediate [the U.S. Standard] should average close to $59), newer technology aircraft are more fuel efficient. A transcontinental trip from New York to Los Angeles is 2,451 miles. Comparative fuel cost on that same trip? 757: $12,000, 737-800: $9,100, and 737MAX: $7,800.
Air carriers are balancing the economics of overhauling lower cost older aircraft (and refreshing interiors) while they wait for delivery of newer technology (better fuel, higher capacity, and distance) but more expensive units. It’s operational economics in competitive traffic lanes that drive aircraft selection. The aircraft finance market for new deliveries is more than $100 billion per year. The Boeing 737-700 has a list price of $75 million, the GE-90 engine that powers the Boeing 777 lists at $24 million each, while the A380 has a list price of almost $390 million U.S.
While improving financials are allowing North American carriers to consider fleet replacement, air carriers continue to operate units for their full life (25 to 30 years). United Airlines is mulling adding narrow-body jets to upgrade capacity on routes currently served by regional carriers (changes are pending an agreement with pilots’ unions).
New orders and the size of manufacturer’s backlogs are driving production rate increases. 2017 commercial jet aircraft deliveries were up 3% at 1617 units. Gross orders in 2017 increased to over 2,500 units (83% of which were for the Boeing 737 family and A320/1). These single-aisle aircraft have coast to coast non-stop range, are the industry workhorses, and are expected to remain so. The world’s commercial fleet which currently estimated at approximately 25,000 in-service aircraft is forecast to expand to 35,000 over the next decade.
The Future of Aviation Leasing and Investment
Operating lessor investors are providing the fleeting flexibility air carriers demand. The number of leasing companies is growing. In 2015 there were approximately 33 such companies with assets more than $1 billion and five with assets worth $10 billion. Today there are over 50 companies with assets in excess of $10 billion. Aviation investment is high profile and high reward, with attractive and stable returns. Nine years of a bull market, still growing and attracting new investment.
The future? Rising interest rates, higher fuel and operating cost, more competition, and more capacity. Investment success is based on aircraft type selection and an understanding of the strength of the user base. Lenders take credit risk, lessors residual risk.
While macro trends are important investing in aviation requires insight into aircraft type residual values and a team of aircraft finance and remarketing professionals. And, investors must ultimately be able to analyze and enforce contractual rights under transaction documents. Global economic growth continues. The air carrier industry is profitable.
With global economic growth continuing, aircraft type investment requires a long view of transaction analytics, including tax, accounting, legal, economic transaction pricing, and future residual values. For profit insight, call RESIDCO.
[1]: In 2017, nine ABS transactions were closed, the most since before the financial crisis.
When comparing investment returns it is misleading to simply look at headline figures. At first glance, it might seem an investment that gained 12% last year is better than one that gained 9%. In reality, it depends on how much risk was involved in generating those returns. The more risk (or volatility), the less probable the returns. The simplest way to measure risk is to look at the standard deviation of the returns. The larger the standard deviation, the riskier the investment.
Investors use the ‘Sharpe’ ratio, a ‘rewards to variability ratio’ to better compare alternatives. The ratio uses the standard deviation (a measure of volatility) to measure the ‘risk adjusted’ return. It’s a measure of the excess return over the risk-free rate relative to the standard deviation. It helps answer the question: “Is the ‘risk adjusted’ return worth the investment risk I am taking”?
Investing in commercial aircraft has historically demonstrated returns that adequately compensate for variability. Aircraft are hard assets with long useful lives*. It’s common for a commercial jet to remain in service 25 years or more. Some even longer, such as a 1970 Boeing 737-200 (serial number 20335), which is still flying with Airfast Indonesia (registration PK-OCG, based in the city of Jakarta, Surabaya and Denpasar). At 47 years, it may be the world’s oldest commercial passenger aircraft still in service (the second oldest 737 is registered to Johannesburg based Interair, South Africa, and, Kenya’s Trans African Air has a 42-year-old 737).
Profitability is just as important as equipment longevity. The International Air Transport Association forecasts global air carrier profitability will rise to $38.4 billion in 2018, up from an expected $34.5 billion in 2017. Operating margin, overall revenue, passenger and air cargo traffic, and average profit per departing passenger are all improving. 2018 is expected to be the fourth consecutive year of sustainable profits with a return on invested capital of 9.4%, which exceeds the industry’s average cost of capital of 7.4%.
IATA’s Director General and CEO recently stated: “These are good times for the global air transport industry. Safety performance is solid. More people than ever are traveling. The demand for air cargo is at its strongest level in over a decade. Employment is growing. More routes are being opened.” Operator challenges include fuel, labor, and infrastructure expenses which are rising. Performance drivers? Passenger and cargo growth. All regions are expected to report improved profitability in 2018. Global connectivity is vital to our modern lifestyle.
As a pilot, you identify and avoid turbulence (and if in turbulence, slow your airspeed). Information limitations can impact your ability to see and avoid. Similarly, in piloting investments, techniques are available for avoiding turbulence while enhancing returns. The complexity surrounding aircraft investment and residual valuation requires sector-specific expertise. Generating income, while retaining upside and liquidity over your investment horizon requires contextual expertise. Blue skies or stormy weather? Modern weather and radar equipment suggest you work with investment managers who have demonstrated abilities structuring transactions that produce, regardless of the weather. Generating such results requires an appreciation of risk-adjusted returns.
Aviation and Rail teamwork. We have the investment roadmap. Call RESIDCO.
*Delta operates 860 aircraft with an average age of 17 years, including a 30-year-old 757, and 30-year-old McDonnell Douglas MD-80s. American also operates MD-80s, the oldest of which was delivered in 1986. British Airways oldest aircraft is a 747, registration G-BNLK, which it received on May 4, 1990
Aviation investment is driven by profitability and the prospect for future growth. Recent mergers have resulted in the number of major carriers in the U.S. decreasing from 10 to 4[1]. This consolidation has created an oligopoly and helped the remaining players[2] take a more balanced approach to capacity management. They now control 80% of the domestic market and a good portion of the international market. With better control of available seat capacity and a developing consensus that jet fuel pricing is going to stay low for the foreseeable future, the industry has become attractive to investors[3]. Add new sources of revenue like charging for baggage, premium seats, and early boarding, combined with fuel saving new engine and equipment technologies and you have double digit returns on invested capital. With high barriers to entry, pricing control, and management talent, the industry appears positioned for a bright future.
Operator fleeting decisions are based on mission, seat mile profits, operating cost, maintenance requirements, reliability, flexibility, and fleet commonality (for pilot substitution, training and spares inventory purposes). Earnings and profit making capability of equipment is valued. Newer aircraft have higher ownership acquisition cost but lower emissions, lower fuel cost, maintenance savings, and a better passenger experience; but, in the current fuel market, the efficiency gains of newer models do not offset their higher ownership cost. New equipment will be needed to serve market growth, but the economics of investing in mid-life aircraft remain.
Since demand is sensitive to the business cycle and equipment supply, investment horizons require the ability to identify appropriate market entry and exit opportunities. Long asset lives require knowledge throughout the investment term and skill to determine the impact of new technologies, exogenous market events, replacement demand, competing aircraft values and investment economics[4].
There are a lot of different kinds of planes. Which are the most profitable? What is the optimal time to enter and exit? Keys include age, seats, units sold and remaining in service, combined with an analysis of a carrier’s mission, market, models, engines, avionics, and fleet operations dynamics. Is the equipment market liquid, can equipment be traded, reconfigured or parted out? Knowledge of asset values and lease rates allow a connection of investment choices with outcomes and translation of these opportunities into action. It requires searching for the best opportunities, both here and abroad, and an experienced management team with a focused investment strategy.
With profitable experience and deep relationships, we effectively manage asset concentrations, credit exposures, and counterparty risks. For long-term strategies and an in depth understanding of the characteristics of aviation equipment combined with the ability to select and manage asset investment for better than average returns contact us directly.
RESIDCO, aviation and transport investment specialists.
[1] Consolidations include Delta and Northwest in 2008, United and Continental in 2010, Southwest and AirTran in 2011, and American and US Airways in 2013.
[2] American, Delta, United, and Southwest.
[3] Warren Buffet picks a company or industry based on his estimate of its success over the next 10 to 20 years. He’s recently invested in U.S. airlines. Why? The industry is enjoying strong finances and good control over capacity.
[4] United Airlines, for example, recently decided to refurbish all 21 of its B767 aircraft that had originally been slated for retirement. Delta extended the use of 15 of its B757s.
Government taxes to encourage (or discourage) a variety of economic activities. The rates set influence the market’s required before-tax rates of return for both individual and business investments. From a social standpoint, taxes are designed to finance public projects, redistribute wealth, and provide basic services. Since self-interest is basic to human nature this creates private incentives to engage in tax planning. Such planning has long earned the blessing of the U.S. Courts.
When you invest, whether you are an individual, or a business owner, the taxing authority is your silent and ‘uninvited investment partner’. Effective planning involves more than being aware of current marginal rates; it requires an evaluation of the longer term results of your decisions, not just for yourself but for all participants. Each party and counter party has their own current and future marginal tax rates. These future expected after tax cash flows affect current actions and decisions. Understanding this concept is important since it directly influences the prices at which assets are traded now, and, what future pricing might be.
Naturally, most taxpayers pay no more tax than they believe they must. And they spend their time and money to arrange affairs to keep their tax bite as ‘painless’ as possible. Remember, money spent on tax planning is ‘tax deductible’, and the tax savings generated are ‘tax exempt’ because they reduce taxes payable.
Are increased taxes good policy? In 1997, Bill Clinton agreed to lower capital gains rates to 20% based on economic literature suggesting the lower rate would yield more tax revenue. It did. Yet Hillary has proposed to nearly double the top tax rate on long term capital gains to 43.4% from 23.8%. Under current tax policy, ‘capital gains’ are taxed as ‘ordinary income’ if an investor has held an asset for less than a year. After 365 days the current top long term gains rate of 20% applies (plus the 3.8% Obama Care surtax on ‘unearned’ income). Hillary has suggested a ‘sliding scale’ approach requiring ‘capital gains’ tax rates during the first two years holding period of 43.4%, year three, 39.8%, and 35.8% in year four. Investments would have to be held for more than six years to qualify for the current 23.8%[1].
Economists generally will agree that a system of competitive markets is remarkably efficient. Remember Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 with his message that government is ‘the problem’ and economic freedom was ‘the answer’. The dominant lesson of the Great Depression and the Great Recession is that when Government overspends, overtaxes, and over regulates, economic freedom is suppressed and economic growth is impacted[2]. How is transportation investment best and ethically encouraged? Transportation asset Investors with a sound investment strategy hold diversified asset positions intended to weather volatility on the way to their longer-term objectives. Working with a firm that has a history of excellence, expertise and ethics produces results.
Call the air and rail transportation experts. Call RESIDCO!
[1] National Center for Policy Analysis, Hillary Clinton’s Capital Gains Tax Proposal, Brief Analysis No. 825, April 14, 2016 by Pamela Villarreal.
[2] WSJ, “Why This Recovery is So Lousy”, August 4, 2016, Phil Gramm and Michael Solon.
RESIDCO’s size and wholesale capability is a competitive advantage. We respond quickly and creatively to ever-changing market conditions.
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Recent Posts
New Regime Decisions Reverberate Through Aero & RailApril 7, 2025 - 5:28 pmA government shutdown averted, a stopgap spending bill signed (ensuring government operations through the end of September), government agency reductions in force, a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries and on imported goods from Mexico and Canada, all in the first quarter of 2025. Trade and reciprocal tariff uncertainties are causing […]
Growing Aero and Rail InvestmentsMarch 19, 2025 - 8:09 amBoeing delivered 45 jets in January[1]. That’s 19 more than Airbus’ January deliveries. COMAC and Embraer each delivered three aircraft in January 2025. Airbus plans to deliver 820 commercial aircraft in 2025, 7% more than in 2024 (Boeing delivered 348 in 2024). Boeing’s 737 deliveries remain capped at 38 aircraft per month. The newly appointed […]
2025 Core Themes for Aero and Rail InvestmentFebruary 5, 2025 - 9:27 pmStrong GDP growth, sticky inflation, and a soft landing–core themes for aero and rail investment. The economy’s performance in 2025 will drive the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. Higher ticket revenues and lower energy prices (jet fuel is expected to be less expensive in 2025) will benefit air carriers. The International Air Transport Association estimates the […]