On March 23rd, 2023, the Federal Reserve voted unanimously1 to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.9%, marking the highest level since 2007. Although the federal funds rate range of 4.75% to 5% is above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target inflation rate, the annual inflation […]
After increasing 3.2% in the third quarter year, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate in last year’s fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve’s preferred price index slowed to 3.2%. Inflation appears to be cooling, but labor, and supply chain challenges remain. Higher interest rates are impacting demand in manufacturing and services. The labor […]
The International Air Travel Association expects the global aero industry to earn a $4.7 billion profit in 2023. U.S. and major European air carriers are better off than Asian (particularly China) carriers. Coming out of the pandemic, pent up air travel demand increased domestic load factors. Equipment and labor became operational challenges. As capital costs […]
Aero and Rail equipment investors focus on both current short term challenges and longer term benefits that support the underlying strategies of their transportation equipment clients. Short term headwinds include inflation, interest rates, a rail strike yet to be resolved, resurgence of COVID-19 in China, deglobalization, a strong U.S. dollar, and continuing gridlock in Congress […]
Despite concerns over the Fed’s interest rate hikes air travel remains resilient. United expects continuing demand will drive profits through the end of this year. JetBlue expects strong demand for leisure travel through the fall and struck a deal in July to buy Spirit Airlines in a $3.8 billion deal to create the fifth-largest U.S. […]
For the past thirty years global supply chains helped keep U.S. inflation low. Globalization led to offshoring. Aero and Rail transport system efficiencies allowed ‘just in time’ inventory control. The pandemic exposed the over reliance on global supply chains. The U.S. fiscal policy response to the pandemic’s impact included more than $5 trillion of direct […]
Aero and Rail investment operate at the intersection of financial services and the real economy. The past decade of low interest rates has driven asset values up. Add the five trillion in aggressive stimulus spending passed by Congress and U.S. inflation is at a four-decade high. During the Covid lockdowns transportation operations were streamlined by […]
As demand returns, post-COVID transportation markets are struggling to maintain service levels. Precision Scheduled Railroading (“PSR”) with its asset and workforce reductions worked to reduce Class One operating ratios. Over the five years before the pandemic the Class Ones had already reduced headcount 33% through attrition and layoffs. During the pandemic workforce reduction continued as […]
A strong labor market is driving wage inflation and a falling unemployment rate (now 3.6%, just above the 3.5% it was before the pandemic). Even though the U.S. GDP was down 1.4% in the first quarter, rail carloads originated in March were up 1.2% year over year. The unexpected GDP drop was driven by a […]
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Tariffs and Trade Shift MarketsJune 6, 2025 - 9:29 pmTariffs and trade shifts are affecting markets. Learn how aero and rail have reacted to these tumultuous times. Call RESIDCO.
Market Disruptions Bolster Aero & Rail InvestmentMay 5, 2025 - 3:40 pmA weaker dollar and Treasury market volatility has made hard asset Aero and Rail investment more attractive. Call RESIDCO.
New Regime Decisions Reverberate Through Aero & RailApril 7, 2025 - 5:28 pmA government shutdown averted, a stopgap spending bill signed (ensuring government operations through the end of September), government agency reductions in force, a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries and on imported goods from Mexico and Canada, all in the first quarter of 2025. Trade and reciprocal tariff uncertainties are causing […]