The Impact of Natural Disasters
On the Gulf Coast, Hurricane Harvey forced the shutdown of refineries and disrupted the production of plastic resins and refined oil products. The Union Pacific and Burlington Northern have lifted embargos for shipments to, from, or passing through the Gulf region. They continue to evaluate affected areas as repairs complete on port and intermodal facilities, switching yards, track, bridges, and signal operations.
How Rail Equipment Traffic has been Affected
The latest weekly AAR traffic reports U.S. rail carload and intermodal volumes ‘tumbled’ in week 37 while year to date traffic remained up 4.1% and intermodal units up 3.4%. Since the shale revolution shifted crude production inland from the Gulf (there was little damage to fracking activities), there is no expectation of a shortage of crude. The Hurricanes will have traffic impacts on certain commodities. But pent-up demand from manufacturers in the affected areas and rebuilding efforts will boost rail traffic in the fourth quarter and into 2018. The will also impact the scrap markets will be felt in a similar manner, as scrap will come out of the damaged areas (light iron and shreddables first, then automobiles and heavier steel).
CSX and “Precision Railroading”
Whether it’s a natural disaster or another unseen event, disruption provides an opportunity to bring to market different value propositions. Disruption changes how we think, behave, and go about our day to day business. The Class Ones and shippers consistently strive to improve operational efficiency and maximize asset utilization. An example: CSX as it transitions to ‘precision railroading’.
Since Hunter Harrison disclosed he was leaving the Canadian Pacific with plans to join the CSX, its shares surged from $36.88 to $45.51, adding $7 Billion in value. He’s a unique talent having taken the Illinois Central, Canadian National, and Canadian Pacific from worst in class to hugely profitable businesses.
CSX’s Vision and Strategy
Harrison’s vision? Dismantle the ‘hub and spoke’ systems widely deployed to a ‘point to point’ system. This would eliminate yard stops, handling, and increase the amount of freight carried and delivered. At the same time it would reduce investment in locomotive power, cars and switching equipment[1].
The key metrics CSX monitors are train velocity, terminal dwell, and cars on line. Downtime and delays are to be avoided. He is pushing customers to shift dispatching cars from five days a week to every day. The approach intends to shrink delivery times by keeping the assets moving and minimizing idle time in rail yards. Cars move directly from their origin to their destination and deliver the same or greater amounts of freight with fewer cars and locomotives.
The goal of this strategy is clear. It’s an operations mindset. Harrison believes this back to basics focused approach will drive superior financial performance. Implementation has been rocky since it’s been incredibly disruptive to both employees and shippers. But the strategy seeks to deliver value to CSX shippers and shareholders by ensuring transportation assets respond to changing circumstances as opportunities for profitable growth. The result seeks to improve CSX profitability while reducing delivery times and shipper freight cost.
Assessing Your Rail Equipment Investment
Harrison senses operational efficiency and efficient asset utilization ultimately drive rail profitability. As you analyze your rail equipment investment be careful of projecting data into the future. Historical data is usually the most reliable, but that data will be an accurate guide only if the future resembles the past. Automating your analytics can lead to insights that formerly only highly experienced analysts could derive. You must overlay that analysis with intuition and skill to unearth where future values will appear.
Recognize disruption as an opportunity for growth. Competitiveness is doing what customers want. Staying competitive requires a willingness and ability to recognize patterns and to learn. If successful, the CSX example may provide a template to revive American manufacturing. Rail equipment investment dynamics may change. The future is not guaranteed. Work with experts who integrate finance, rail equipment expertise to optimize value particularly when disruption occurs. Work with RESIDCO.
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[1] Similar to Southwest Airline’s model which allows it to keep its equipment flying more hours per day than its rivals.
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